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Bao, Alex, Bontems, Philippe
, Cardebat, Jean-Marie and Chiappini, Raphaël
(2024)
Exporters’ behaviour in the face of climate volatility.
TSE Working Paper, n. 24-1552, Toulouse
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Abstract
This paper investigates how exporters adjust trade margins to demand shocks and climate-induced production volatility. Combining French wine export data (113 PDOs, 49 destinations, 2001–2020) with high-resolution weather records, we estimate theory-consistent structural gravity models using instrumental variables that exploit exogenous variation in extreme temperatures. Production volatility significantly reduces export volumes, while demand shocks shape market allocation. A heterogeneity shows that exporters absorb production shocks by reallocating supply across markets, protecting volumes in core destinations while curtailing shipments to less profitable peripheral ones. A theoretical model of risk-averse heterogeneous firms rationalizes these findings through scale, redeployment, and selection effects driving export reallocation under climate risk.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Date: | July 2024 |
| Place of Publication: | Toulouse |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Climate Change, Cost shocks, Demand shocks, Gravity model, Heterogeneous Firms. |
| JEL Classification: | F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies F18 - Trade and Environment Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy Q56 - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting; Environmental Equity |
| Subjects: | B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE |
| Divisions: | TSE-R (Toulouse) |
| Institution: | Université Toulouse Capitole |
| Site: | UT1 |
| Date Deposited: | 12 Jul 2024 11:14 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Dec 2025 15:07 |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:tse-fr.eu:129521 |
| URI: | https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/49544 |
