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Crampes, Claude
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6383-7738 and Estache, Antonio
(2026)
On the predictability of the effects of data centers electricity demand shocks.
TSE Working Paper, n. 26-1726, Toulouse
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Abstract
The paper shows that the entry of data centers in the electricity market leads to price and consumption effects observed in the real world that were quite predictable from a simple conceptual modelling exercise. The size of the associated welfare losses is sensitive to specific electricity market characteristics, explaining why they are often not comparable across regions or countries. In general, the historical users are likely to be worse off in the short run. They will recover their losses in the longer run, but only if the entrant finances its own capacity needs and if the data centers do not have
excessive bargaining power. The differences in possible outcomes according to context suggests that one-size-fits-all policies to manage the shock across countries or regions will fail to mitigate undesirable effects in some contexts.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Date: | March 2026 |
| Place of Publication: | Toulouse |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Data centers, Electricity, Pricing, Regulation, Incidence |
| JEL Classification: | D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement L1 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance L5 - Regulation and Industrial Policy L94 - Electric Utilities O33 - Technological Change - Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes Q41 - Demand and Supply Q48 - Government Policy |
| Subjects: | B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE |
| Divisions: | TSE-R (Toulouse) |
| Institution: | Université Toulouse Capitole |
| Site: | UT1 |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Mar 2026 14:05 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Mar 2026 14:05 |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:tse-fr.eu:131588 |
| URI: | https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/52732 |
