Rahwan, IyadORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1796-4303, Shariff, Azim and Bonnefon, Jean-FrançoisORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4959-188X (2025) The science fiction science method. Nature, vol. 644. pp. 51-58.

Abstract

Predicting the social and behavioural impact of future technologies before they are achieved would enable us to guide their development and regulation before these impacts get entrenched. Traditionally, this prediction has relied on qualitative, narrative methods. Here we describe a method that uses experimental methods to simulate future technologies and collect quantitative measures of the attitudes and behaviours of participants assigned to controlled variations of the future. We call this method ‘science fiction science’. We suggest that the reason that this method has not been fully embraced yet, despite its potential benefits, is that experimental scientists may be reluctant to engage in work that faces such serious validity threats. To address these threats, we consider possible constraints on the types of technology that science fiction science may study, as well as the unconventional, immersive methods that it may require. We seek to provide perspective on the reasons why this method has been marginalized for so long, the benefits it would bring if it could be built on strong yet unusual methods, and how we can normalize these methods to help the diverse community of science fiction scientists to engage in a virtuous cycle of validity improvement.

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