Hogan, Dylan, Frank, Eyal G., Gantois, Josephine and Missirian, Anouch (2025) The Effectiveness of Local Conservation Ballots. AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol. 115. pp. 403-408.

Abstract

Global action to slow biodiversity loss is critically needed but comes at substantial cost. In this article, we assess the effectiveness of local ballot measures for land-based conservation projects in the United States as a way to increase bird abundance, a key conservation indicator. Using a citizen science dataset of bird observations, we employ an abundance model to estimate relative abundance conditional on observer effort and exploit a sharp discontinuity in land-based conservation funding at the vote threshold to estimate plausibly causal effects. We find that an approved ballot measure has modest but significant impacts that accrue over ten years.