Dardati, Evangelina, Laurent, Thibault, Margaretic, Paula and Thomas-Agnan, Christine (2025) Climate, conflict and nternational migration. TSE Working Paper, n. 24-1575, Toulouse

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Abstract

This paper examines the role of social conflict in the relationship between climate shocks and international migration. Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows covering 155 origin and 122 destination countries from 1995 to 2020 and employ-ing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. Specifically, we find that a one standard deviation decrease in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and document positive and significant origin- and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our analysis contributes to the emerging literature on climate-conflict-migration linkages and offers a novel methodological framework for assessing migration spillovers under climate stress.