Lafouresse, Fanny, Jugele, Romain, Müller, Sabina, Doineau, Marine, Duplan-Eche, Valérie, Espinosa, Eric, Puissegur, Marie-Pierre, Gadat, Sébastien and Valitutti, Salvatore (2021) Stochastic asymmetric repartition of lytic machinery in dividing CD8+ T cells generates heterogeneous killing behavior. eLife.

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Abstract

I calibrate a Multiple‐Risk Susceptible–Infected–Recovered model on the covid pandemic to analyze the impact of the age‐specific confinement and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing policies on incomes and mortality. Two polar strategies emerge
as potentially optimal. The suppression policy would crush the curve by confining 90% of the population for 4 months to eradicate the virus. The flatten‐thecurve
policy would reduce the confinement to 30% of the population for 5 months, followed by almost 1 year of free circulation of the virus to attain herd immunity without overwhelming hospitals.Both strategies yield a total cost of around 15% of annual
gross domestic product (GDP) when combining the economic cost of confinement with the value of lives lost. I show that hesitating between the two strategies can have a huge societal cost, in particular if the suppression policy is stopped too early. Because
seniors are much more vulnerable, a simple recommendation emerges to shelter them as one deconfines young and middle‐aged people to build our collective herd immunity. By doing so, one reduces the death toll of the pandemic together with the economic cost of the confinement, and the total cost is divided by a factor 2. I also show that expanding
the mass testing capacity to screen people sent back to work has a large benefit under various scenarios.This analysis is highly dependent upon deeply uncertain epidemiologic, sociological, economic, and ethical parameters.