Pollinger, Stefan
(2020)
Optimal Case Detection and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress COVID-19.
TSE Working Paper, n. 20-1109, Toulouse
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Abstract
This paper shows that the optimal combination of social distancing and case detection allows for complete and efficient eradication of COVID-19. The first contribution is theoretical. I show that the optimal suppression-policy is a simple function of observable sufficient-statistics, making it easily implementable. I prove that optimal social distancing is the strongest when an outbreak is detected, and then gradually relaxed. If case detection is sufficiently efficient, social distancing vanishes wholly and quickly; otherwise, it needs to stay in place until a vaccine arrives. The second contribution is quantitative. I find that, if Italy adopts digital contact tracing, total suppression costs only 0.8% of annual GDP. In sharp contrast, under the current detection efficiency, the total cost of suppression amounts to at least 14% of GDP.
Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
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Language: | English |
Date: | May 2020 |
Place of Publication: | Toulouse |
Subjects: | B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE |
Divisions: | TSE-R (Toulouse) |
Institution: | Université Toulouse 1 Capitole |
Site: | UT1 |
Date Deposited: | 28 May 2020 13:16 |
Last Modified: | 22 Mar 2021 10:33 |
OAI Identifier: | oai:tse-fr.eu:124343 |
URI: | https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/35036 |