Andersson, Henrik (2011) Perception of Own Death Risk : An Assessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk. Risk Analysis, 31 (7).

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Abstract

This study examines individuals' perception of their own road-mortality risk using a
Swedish data set. Individuals' subjective beliefs about their personal risk are compared
with the objective risk of his/her own age and gender group, which in this study is defined
as the respondents' objective risk. Both descriptive statistics and regression results suggest
that low and high risk groups over- and underassess their risk levels, respectively. Having
access to individual-level data we also find that the probability of underassessment and the
size of risk bias is related to individual characteristics, e.g. gender. Individuals' formation
of risk perception is also analyzed based on the Bayesian learning model. Even though
we find a positive relationship between perceived and objective risk, we cannot reject the
hypothesis that individuals are not Bayesian in updating their risk beliefs.