Gay, Victor, Gobbi, Paula Eugenia and Goni, Marc (2026) Revolutionary Transition: Inheritance Change and Fertility Decline. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 134 (n°6). pp. 1666-1713.

Abstract

We test Le Play’s 1875 hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France’s early fertility decline by imposing equal partition of inheritance among all children, including women. We combine new data on local inheritance rules before the Revolution and individual-level demographic data from historical sources and crowdsourced genealogies. Difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity estimates show that the inheritance reforms enacted during the Revolution reduced completed fertility by 0.5 children. A key mechanism was the desire to avoid land fragmentation across generations. These reforms closed the fertility gap between regions with different historical inheritance rules and crucially contributed to France’s demographic transition.