Gasmi, Farid, Recuero Virto, Laura and Couvet, Denis (2023) An empirical analysis of economic growth in countries exposed to coastal risks: Implications for their ecosystems. Economic Systems, vol. 47 (n° 4).

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Identification Number : 10.1016/j.ecosys.2023.101130


Using a novel database on countries exposed to coastal risks (CR), this paper estimates an augmented neoclassical growth model that encompasses eight other new growth models. To account for uncertainty related to the number of models and choice of growth determinant proxies, we use a Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. A preliminary examination of the data reveals that a country that faces coastal risks is likely to be a former British colony characterized by a common law legal framework, a parliamentary political system, a high degree of international trade openness, little language and ethnic fractionalization, a low level of public sector corruption, and a high rate of fertility. The BACE-based model selection procedure shows that, in CR countries, the growth determinant proxies typically used in the neoclassical, macroeconomic policy, natural resources, and institutions theories are significantly correlated with growth. These results suggest two implications related to these countries’ coastal ecosystems. First, because they are heavily dependent on natural resources and have high fertility rates, these countries might seek short-term economic gains at the expense of deterioration in their ecosystems. Second, these countries’ good institutions and low levels of ethnic division might be conducive to sustainable management of these ecosystems.

Item Type: Article
Language: English
Date: December 2023
Refereed: Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, Coastal risks, Economic growth, Ecosystems
JEL Classification: O13 - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
O47 - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output (Income) Convergence
Q01 - Sustainable Development
Q20 - General
Q22 - Fishery; Aquaculture
Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
Divisions: TSE-R (Toulouse)
Site: UT1
Date Deposited: 16 Apr 2024 08:23
Last Modified: 16 Apr 2024 08:23
OAI Identifier:

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