Bardey, David, Fernandez, Manuel and Gravel, Alexis (2021) Coronavirus and social distancing: do non-pharmaceutical-interventions work (at least) in the short run? TSE Working Paper, n. 21-1189, Toulouse

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Using detailed daily information covering 100 countries and an event-study approach, we
estimate the short run eects of implementing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) on
the spread of the COVID-19 virus at the early stages of the pandemic. We study the impact
of two NPIs {stay-at-home requirements and workplace closures{ on three outcomes: daily
residential and workplace mobility; the daily growth rate of cases; and the daily growth rate
of fatalities. We find that immediately after NPIs were implemented, mobility declined by
0.2 standard deviation (SD), and two weeks afterwards it was down by 0.7 SDs. 25 days after
the NPIs were implemented, the daily growth rate of cases and deaths was lower by 10%
and 8.4% respectively. Our results reveal that between 53 and 72 percent of the reduction of
the daily growth rate of cases and deaths associated with a reduction of mobility is caused
by NPIs.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Language: English
Date: February 2021
Place of Publication: Toulouse
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, Pandemic
JEL Classification: I12 - Health Production - Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Suicide, Substance Abuse and Addiction, Disability, and Economic Behavior
I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
I38 - Government Policy; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
Divisions: TSE-R (Toulouse)
Institution: Université Toulouse 1 Capitole
Site: UT1
Date Deposited: 09 Mar 2021 14:31
Last Modified: 13 Jul 2022 08:07
OAI Identifier:
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