Gollier, Christian (2020) Pandemic economics: Optimal dynamic confinement under uncertainty and learning. Covid Economics, vol. 34 (n° 3). pp. 1-14.

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Identification Number : 10.1057/s10713-020-00052-1


Most integrated models of the Covid pandemic have been developed under the assumption that the policy-sensitive reproduction number is certain. The decision to exit from the lockdown has been made in most countries without knowing the reproduction number that would prevail after the deconfinement. In this paper, I explore the role of uncertainty and learning on the optimal dynamic lockdown policy. I limit the analysis to suppression strategies. In the absence of uncertainty, the optimal confinement policy is to impose a constant rate of lockdown until the
suppression of the virus in the population. I show that introducing uncertainty about the reproduction number of deconfined people reduces the optimal initial rate of confinement.

Item Type: Article
Language: English
Date: 3 July 2020
Refereed: Yes
Divisions: TSE-R (Toulouse)
Site: UT1
Date Deposited: 30 Jul 2020 13:33
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2021 09:35
OAI Identifier: oai:tse-fr.eu:124425
URI: https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/41557

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