Buchheim, Lukas and Ulbricht, Robert (2014) Dynamics of Political Systems. TSE Working Paper, n. 14-464, Toulouse

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We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the beliefs of disenfranchised citizens play a key role in determining revolutionary pressure, which in interaction with preemptive reforms determines regime dynamics. We estimate the model structurally, targeting key moments of the data. The estimated model generates a process of political transitions that looks remarkably close to the data, replicating the empirical shape of transition hazards, the frequency of revolts relative to reforms, the distribution of newly established regime types after revolts and reforms, and the unconditional distribution over regime types. Using the estimated model, we also explore circumstances of successful democratization, finding that the sentiment of political outsiders is key for creating a window of opportunity, whereas the scope of the initial democratic reform is key for the survival of young democracies.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Language: English
Date: 1 February 2014
Place of Publication: Toulouse
Uncontrolled Keywords: Democratic reforms, regime dynamics, revolts, structural estimation, transition hazards
JEL Classification: D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
D78 - Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation
P16 - Political Economy
Divisions: TSE-R (Toulouse)
Institution: Université Toulouse 1 Capitole
Site: UT1
Date Deposited: 09 Jul 2014 17:41
Last Modified: 27 Oct 2021 13:36
OAI Identifier: oai:tse-fr.eu:27883
URI: https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/15818
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