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SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality

Goenka, Aditya, Liu, Lin and Nguyen, Manh-Hung (2020) SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality. TSE Working Paper, n. 20-1150, Toulouse

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This paper studies an optimal growth model where health expenditures (alternatively lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease when there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics and infections can cause disease related mortality. We study implications of two different SIR models - with early mortality and with late mortality from the disease - on health outcomes, optimal response and on economic outcomes in equilibrium. We characterize the steady states and show how these vary when varying mortality. The outcomes are sensitive to the specification of the epidemiology model. We also study sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Language: English
Date: October 2020
Place of Publication: Toulouse
Uncontrolled Keywords: Infectious diseases, Covid-19, SIR model, mortality, sufficiency conditions, economic growth, lockdown, prevention, health expenditure.
JEL Classification: C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
D50 - General
D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
E13 - Neoclassical
E22 - Capital; Investment (including Inventories); Capacity
I10 - General
I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Divisions: TSE-R (Toulouse)
Institution: Université Toulouse Capitole
Site: UT1
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2020 07:33
Last Modified: 06 Oct 2020 07:33
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