The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US

Moura, Alban (2015) The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US. TSE Working Paper, n. 15-610, Toulouse

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Official URL: http://tse-fr.eu/pub/29919

Abstract

This paper uses an estimated sticky-price model to identify endogenous movements in government consumption in the U.S. economy. Two feedback effects are considered, one originating from the stock of public debt and one from contemporaneous output. The data provide significant statistical evidence in favor of such mechanisms, even though a subsample analysis reveals that their strength may have decreased over time. Monte Carlo simulations assessing a DSGE model with exogenous spending and various identified VARs suggest that failing to account for these feedbacks may induce a severe upward bias in estimated multipliers.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Language: English
Date: November 2015
Place of Publication: Toulouse
Uncontrolled Keywords: Government spending multiplier, endogenous fiscal policy, structural econometrics
JEL codes: C32 - Time-Series Models
E62 - Fiscal Policy; Public Expenditures, Investment, and Finance; Taxation
H30 - General
Subjects: B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE
Divisions: TSE-R (Toulouse)
Institution: Université Toulouse 1 Capitole
Site: UT1
Date Deposited: 30 Jun 2016 15:45
Last Modified: 07 Mar 2018 13:23
OAI ID: oai:tse-fr.eu:29919
URI: http://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/18732

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