relation: https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/49439/ title: Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs ! creator: Fève, Patrick creator: Collard, Fabrice creator: Guay, Alain subject: B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE description: This paper studies the impact of Higher Order Belief (HOB) shocks, representing shifts in agents’ beliefs about others’ beliefs, on macroeconomic outcomes. The dynamic causal effects of these shocks are identified by leveraging a combination of a proxy-VAR approach and DSGE-based instruments. Our findings suggest that HOB shocks are indeed a key driver of the business cycle and account for a sizeable share of the observed business cycle volatility. Finally, our identification approach ensures that these shocks are not confounded with other structural/fundamental shocks. publisher: TSE Working Paper date: 2024-05 type: Monograph type: NonPeerReviewed format: text language: en identifier: https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/49439/1/wp_tse_1539.pdf identifier: Fève, Patrick , Collard, Fabrice and Guay, Alain (2024) Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs ! TSE Working Paper, n. 24-1539, Toulouse relation: http://tse-fr.eu/pub/129351 language: en