eprintid: 48483 rev_number: 13 eprint_status: archive userid: 1482 importid: 105 dir: disk0/00/04/84/83 datestamp: 2023-12-22 12:21:25 lastmod: 2024-03-18 08:19:29 status_changed: 2024-03-18 08:19:29 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Briand, Anne creators_name: Reynaud, Arnaud creators_name: Viroleau, Franck creators_name: Markantonis, Vasileios creators_name: Branciforti, Giuliana creators_idrefppn: 117537160 creators_idrefppn: 15826956X creators_idrefppn: 237526093 creators_affiliation: Toulouse School of Economics;INRAE creators_halaffid: 1002422 ; 577435 title: Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Water Scarcity in South Africa using a CGE Model ispublished: pub subjects: subjects_ECO abstract: We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the macroeconomic impacts of water scarcity and water (in)security in South Africa. The CGE model which includes a detailed representation of water resources (surface water, groundwater, wastewater, and seawater) has been calibrated with an updated social accounting matrix enabling to conduct policy simulations up to 2030. With the 17% expected increase of water scarcity (population growth, climate change, and poor management of water resources), the CGE model predicts a decrease of South African GDP by −0.44% in 2030. The long-term impact of water scarcity varies from one sector to another, the most negatively impacted sectors being those related to water. Due to water scarcity, unemployment will increase in the short term by 0.76%. In the long term (2030), unemployment is however expected to recover its baseline level. The increase in water scarcity is also predicted to have a negative impact on household welfare, household consumption being reduced by −0.47% in 2030. A particular concern for policy-makers might be that low-income households are expected to be more impacted by water scarcity than high-income households. Some policies may mitigate the negative impacts of water scarcity, the most promising ones being to promote water saving and to decrease non-revenue water. date: 2023-03-15 date_type: published publisher: Kluwer id_number: 10.1007/s10666-023-09883-4 official_url: http://tse-fr.eu/pub/128865 faculty: tse divisions: tse keywords: Computable general equilibrium model keywords: South Africa keywords: Water keywords: Economic growth keywords: Households keywords: Firms language: en has_fulltext: FALSE doi: 10.1007/s10666-023-09883-4 view_date_year: 2023 full_text_status: none publication: Environmental Modeling & Assessment volume: vol. 28 number: n° 2 place_of_pub: Netherlands pagerange: 259-272 refereed: TRUE issn: 1420-2026 oai_identifier: oai:tse-fr.eu:128865 harvester_local_overwrite: creators_idrefppn harvester_local_overwrite: creators_halaffid harvester_local_overwrite: pending harvester_local_overwrite: number harvester_local_overwrite: volume harvester_local_overwrite: date harvester_local_overwrite: publisher harvester_local_overwrite: pagerange harvester_local_overwrite: place_of_pub harvester_local_overwrite: hal_id harvester_local_overwrite: hal_version harvester_local_overwrite: hal_url harvester_local_overwrite: hal_passwd harvester_local_overwrite: publication oai_lastmod: 2024-03-13T13:13:53Z oai_set: tse site: ut1 hal_id: hal-04361594 hal_passwd: @1@7qcr hal_version: 1 hal_url: https://hal.science/hal-04361594 citation: Briand, Anne , Reynaud, Arnaud , Viroleau, Franck , Markantonis, Vasileios and Branciforti, Giuliana (2023) Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Water Scarcity in South Africa using a CGE Model. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, vol. 28 (n° 2). pp. 259-272.