RT Journal Article
SR 00
ID 10.1007/s10666-023-09883-4
A1 Briand, Anne
A1 Reynaud, Arnaud
A1 Viroleau, Franck
A1 Markantonis, Vasileios
A1 Branciforti, Giuliana
T1 Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Water Scarcity in South Africa using a CGE Model
JF Environmental Modeling & Assessment
YR 2023
FD 2023-03-15
VO vol. 28
IS n° 2
SP 259
OP 272
K1 Computable general equilibrium model
K1 South Africa
K1 Water
K1 Economic growth
K1 Households
K1 Firms
AB We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the macroeconomic impacts of water scarcity and water (in)security in South Africa. The CGE model which includes a detailed representation of water resources (surface water, groundwater, wastewater, and seawater) has been calibrated with an updated social accounting matrix enabling to conduct policy simulations up to 2030. With the 17% expected increase of water scarcity (population growth, climate change, and poor management of water resources), the CGE model predicts a decrease of South African GDP by −0.44% in 2030. The long-term impact of water scarcity varies from one sector to another, the most negatively impacted sectors being those related to water. Due to water scarcity, unemployment will increase in the short term by 0.76%. In the long term (2030), unemployment is however expected to recover its baseline level. The increase in water scarcity is also predicted to have a negative impact on household welfare, household consumption being reduced by −0.47% in 2030. A particular concern for policy-makers might be that low-income households are expected to be more impacted by water scarcity than high-income households. Some policies may mitigate the negative impacts of water scarcity, the most promising ones being to promote water saving and to decrease non-revenue water.
PB Kluwer
SN 1420-2026
LK https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/48483/
UL http://tse-fr.eu/pub/128865