RT Monograph SR 00 A1 Méango, Romuald A1 Poinas, François T1 The (Option-)Value of Overstaying YR 2023 FD 2023-10 VO 23-1478 SP 63 K1 Subjective expectations K1 Intention to overstay K1 Asylum seekers K1 Germany K1 Afghanistan AB The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advan-tage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the as-sociated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying, and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation. T2 TSE Working Paper PB TSE Working Paper PP Toulouse AV Published LK https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/48304/ UL http://tse-fr.eu/pub/128601