eprintid: 46511
rev_number: 8
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1482
importid: 105
dir: disk0/00/04/65/11
datestamp: 2023-10-27 14:44:12
lastmod: 2023-10-27 14:45:01
status_changed: 2023-10-27 14:44:12
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Resnick Samotin, Laura
creators_name: Friedman, Jeffrey A.
creators_name: Horowitz, Michael C.
creators_id: LR2771@columbia.edu
creators_idrefppn: 248537881
creators_affiliation: Dartmouth College, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse
title: Obstacles to Harnessing Analytic Innovation in Foreign Policy Analysis: A Case Study of Crowdsourcing in the U.S. Intelligence Community
ispublished: pub
subjects: subjects_ECO
abstract: We conducted interviews with national security professionals to examine why the U.S. Intelligence Community has not systematically incorporated prediction markets or prediction polls into its intelligence reporting. This behavior is surprising since crowdsourcing platforms often generate more accurate predictions than traditional forms of intelligence analysis. Our interviews suggest that three principal barriers to adopting these platforms involved (i) bureaucratic politics, (ii) decision-makers lacking interest in probability estimates, and (iii) lack of knowledge about these platforms’ ability to generate accurate predictions. Interviewees offered many actionable suggestions for addressing these challenges in future efforts to incorporate crowdsourcing platforms or other algorithmic tools into intelligence tradecraft.
date: 2023
date_type: published
id_number: 10.1080/02684527.2022.2142352
official_url: http://iast.fr/pub/127582
faculty: tse
divisions: tse
language: en
has_fulltext: FALSE
doi: 10.1080/02684527.2022.2142352
view_date_year: 2023
full_text_status: none
publication: Intelligence and National Security
volume: vol. 38
number: n° 4
pagerange: 558-575
refereed: TRUE
issn: 0268-4527
oai_identifier: oai:tse-fr.eu:127582
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oai_lastmod: 2023-06-23T12:50:43Z
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site: ut1
hal_id: hal-04262738
hal_passwd: vlud0z
hal_version: 1
hal_url: https://hal.science/hal-04262738
citation:   Resnick Samotin, Laura, Friedman, Jeffrey A. <https://www.idref.fr/248537881> and Horowitz, Michael C.  (2023) Obstacles to Harnessing Analytic Innovation in Foreign Policy Analysis: A Case Study of Crowdsourcing in the U.S. Intelligence Community.    Intelligence and National Security, vol. 38 (n° 4).  pp. 558-575.