?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpublications.ut-capitole.fr%2Fid%2Feprint%2F22529%2F&rft.title=Is+the+Macroeconomy+Locally+Unstable+and+Why+Should+We+Care%3F&rft.creator=Beaudry%2C+Paul&rft.creator=Galizia%2C+Dana&rft.creator=Portier%2C+Franck&rft.subject=B-+ECONOMIE+ET+FINANCE&rft.description=In+most+modern+macroeconomic+models%2C+the+steady+state+(or+balanced+growth+path)+of+the+system+is+a+local+attractor%2C+in+the+sense+that%2C+in+the+absence+of+shocks%2C+the+economy+would+converge+to+the+steady+state.+In+this+paper%2C+we+examine+whether+the+time+series+behavior+of+macroeconomic+aggregates+(especially+labor+market+aggregates)+is+in+fact+supportive+of+this+local-stability+view+of+macroeconomic+dynamics%2C+or+if+it+instead+favors+an+alternative+inter-+pretation+in+which+the+macroeconomy+may+be+better+characterized+as+being+locally+unstable%2C+with+nonlinear+deterministic+forces+capable+of+producing+endogenous+cyclical+behavior.+To+do+this%2C+we+extend+a+standard+AR+representation+of+the+data+to+allow+for+smooth+nonlinearities.+Our+main+finding+is+that%2C+even+using+a+procedure+that+may+have+low+power+to+detect+local+instability%2C+the+data+provide+intriguing+support+for+the+view+that+the+macroeconomy+may+be+locally+unstable+and+involve+limit-cycle+forces.+An+interesting+finding+is+that+the+degree+of+nonlinearity+we+detect+in+the+data+is+small%2C+but+nevertheless+enough+to+alter+the+description+of+macroeconomic+behavior.+We+complete+the+paper+with+a+discussion+of+the+extent+to+which+these+two+different+views+about+the+inherent+dynamics+of+the+macroeconomy+may+matter+for+policy.&rft.publisher=TSE+Working+Paper&rft.date=2016-11&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=fr&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpublications.ut-capitole.fr%2Fid%2Feprint%2F22529%2F1%2FBeaudry_22529.pdf&rft.identifier=++Beaudry%2C+Paul%2C+Galizia%2C+Dana+and+Portier%2C+Franck+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.idref.fr%2F035426225%3E++(2016)+Is+the+Macroeconomy+Locally+Unstable+and+Why+Should+We+Care%3F++TSE+Working+Paper%2C+n.+16-736%2C+Toulouse+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Ftse-fr.eu%2Fpub%2F31201&rft.language=en