eprintid: 19531 rev_number: 34 eprint_status: archive userid: 1482 importid: 105 dir: disk0/00/01/95/31 datestamp: 2016-02-12 14:20:54 lastmod: 2023-07-19 23:02:17 status_changed: 2018-07-20 09:03:14 type: article succeeds: 48118 metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Chen, Daniel L. creators_name: Moskowitz, Tobias J. creators_name: Shue, Kelly creators_idrefppn: 15144496X title: Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires ispublished: pub subjects: subjects_ECO abstract: We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application reviews, and Major League Baseball umpire pitch calls. The evidence is most consistent with the law of small numbers and the gambler’s fallacy—people underestimating the likelihood of sequential streaks occurring by chance—leading to negatively autocorrelated decisions that result in errors. The negative autocorrelation is stronger among more moderate and less experienced decision makers, following longer streaks of decisions in one direction, when the current and previous cases share similar characteristics or occur close in time, and when decision makers face weaker incentives for accuracy. Other explanations for negatively autocorrelated decisions such as quotas, learning, or preferences to treat all parties fairly are less consistent with the evidence, though we cannot completely rule out sequential contrast effects as an alternative explanation date: 2016-08 date_type: published publisher: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press id_number: 10.1093/qje/qjw017 official_url: http://tse-fr.eu/pub/30123 faculty: tse divisions: tse language: en has_fulltext: FALSE doi: 10.1093/qje/qjw017 view_date_year: 2016 full_text_status: none publication: The Quarterly Journal of Economics volume: 131 number: 3 pagerange: 1181-1241 refereed: TRUE issn: 0033-5533 oai_identifier: oai:tse-fr.eu:30123 harvester_local_overwrite: oai_set harvester_local_overwrite: creators_name harvester_local_overwrite: issn harvester_local_overwrite: faculty harvester_local_overwrite: sub_title harvester_local_overwrite: site harvester_local_overwrite: publication harvester_local_overwrite: title harvester_local_overwrite: publisher harvester_local_overwrite: doi harvester_local_overwrite: id_number harvester_local_overwrite: creators_idrefppn oai_lastmod: 2019-10-08T07:27:06Z oai_set: tse oai_set: ut1c site: ut1 citation: Chen, Daniel L., Moskowitz, Tobias J. and Shue, Kelly (2016) Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131 (3). pp. 1181-1241.