?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpublications.ut-capitole.fr%2Fid%2Feprint%2F16442%2F&rft.title=Necessary+and+Sufficient+Conditions+for+Prediction+Market+Accuracy&rft.creator=He%2C+Xue-Zhong&rft.creator=Treich%2C+Nicolas&rft.subject=B-+ECONOMIE+ET+FINANCE&rft.description=We+consider+a+binary-event+prediction+market+in+which+traders+have%0D%0Aheterogeneous+prior+beliefs.+We+derive+conditions+so+that+the+prediction%0D%0Amarket+is+accurate+in+the+sense+that+the+equilibrium+price+equals%0D%0Athe+mean+of+traders%E2%80%99+beliefs.+We+show+that+the+prediction+market+is%0D%0Aaccurate+i)+for+all+distributions+of+beliefs+if+and+only+if+the+utility+function%0D%0Ais+logarithmic%2C+and+ii)+for+all+strictly+concave+utility+functions+if%0D%0Aand+only+if+the+distribution+of+beliefs+is+symmetric+about+one+half.+We%0D%0Aalso+exhibit+a+necessary+and+sufficient+condition+for+the+equilibrium%0D%0Aprice+to+be+always+above+or+below+the+mean+beliefs+for+all+symmetric%0D%0Abeliefs+distributions.&rft.date=2011-02&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpublications.ut-capitole.fr%2Fid%2Feprint%2F16442%2F1%2Fmedias%2Fdoc%2Fby%2Ftreich%2Fnecessary.pdf&rft.identifier=++He%2C+Xue-Zhong+and+Treich%2C+Nicolas+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.idref.fr%2F176599940%3E++(2011)+Necessary+and+Sufficient+Conditions+for+Prediction+Market+Accuracy.+++++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Ftse-fr.eu%2Fpub%2F25825&rft.language=en