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Goenka, Aditya, Liu, Lin and Nguyen, Manh-Hung
(2020)
SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality.
TSE Working Paper, n. 20-1150, Toulouse
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Abstract
This paper studies an optimal growth model where health expenditures (alternatively lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease when there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics and infections can cause disease related mortality. We study implications of two different SIR models - with early mortality and with late mortality from the disease - on health outcomes, optimal response and on economic outcomes in equilibrium. We characterize the steady states and show how these vary when varying mortality. The outcomes are sensitive to the specification of the epidemiology model. We also study sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Date: | October 2020 |
| Place of Publication: | Toulouse |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Infectious diseases, Covid-19, SIR model, mortality, sufficiency conditions, economic growth, lockdown, prevention, health expenditure. |
| JEL Classification: | C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis D50 - General D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement E13 - Neoclassical E22 - Capital; Investment (including Inventories); Capacity I10 - General I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models |
| Subjects: | B- ECONOMIE ET FINANCE |
| Divisions: | TSE-R (Toulouse) |
| Institution: | Université Toulouse Capitole |
| Site: | UT1 |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Oct 2020 07:33 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Mar 2021 12:27 |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:tse-fr.eu:124766 |
| URI: | https://publications.ut-capitole.fr/id/eprint/41832 |
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